Assad and Yogi Berra: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over

Don't the names just roll off your tongue already? Jisr al-Shughour, Dara'a, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Banias, Maarat al-Numaan...already just some of the well-known Syrian cities, towns and villages where protests have been going on since January and which turned into uprisings and more starting in mid-March.

Bashar al-Assad, the London-trained ophthalmologist dictator (he studied this area of medicine "because it involved the least amount of blood") and his Alawite-Ba'athist regime are in deep trouble. More than 1,400 Syrian civilians have been killed and thousands more have been injured and detained, while a flood of refugees have reached (or are trying to reach) the Turkish border. The big question is: how long can this go on and can Assad and his regime survive all of this?

Putting aside for the moment a lot of other questions - including the timidity of the Obama administration and NATO (as opposed to what is going on in Libya), we need to keep our eye on the bouncing ball (or bullets, as one might have it) and from every indication, the question isn't what's happened in the places listed above, but what will happen in Syria's largest city, Aleppo and the capital Damascus, for as they go, so will go the rest of the country; and so far, even with some demonstrations in a couple of districts in Damascus and the killing of a student in Aleppo last week, it looks like it's going to be a long, hot summer.

The Syrian government is pouring troops into areas around Aleppo, and another commentator points out that while the regime's harsh retaliation has not succeeded so far in putting down the protest movement that comes alive every Friday in Syrian cities and towns, "it is also clear that the Syrian Uprising has failed to attain the critical mass required to stage large-scale demonstrations in the capital Damascus or the largest city Aleppo".

The failure to mobilize the populations in Syria's two largest cities against the regime are not just a function of fear and uncertainty, but seem to have a certain "class" aspect as well, as they are both trading and economic hubs, and inhabitants are protecting their business and commercial interests, too. At the moment, at least for the citizens of Aleppo and Damascus, no one is sure what the political alternative to the Baath's rule is - and vague generalities won't suffice.

Or as Yogi would say, "It ain't over 'til it's over".

Related Topics: Alawites, Syria receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free middle east clarity mailing list