Update on Syria situation: the opposition's dilemmas

After seven months of conflict, "Ehsani" at Syria Comment writes on the possibility of the Assad regime falling. He is not optimistic about any changes in the immediate future: "The Syrian military and internal security apparatus is a cohesive group that seems unlikely to disintegrate anytime soon. There is no doubt that some desertions have taken place. But these have been too sporadic to make a noticeable rupture in the army's control over the Syrian territory."

The opposition must now be aware that defeating this regime militarily is unlikely to happen without foreign help. "The popular uprising that was going to sweep away the Syrian regime was an attractive option in theory. Members of the Syrian opposition saw it as the way forward. In practice, however, it is yet to yield any discernible result."

Ehsani then examines the idea of "foreign help" – and what it means exactly: 1) foreign boots on the ground; 2) no fly-zone; 3) arming internal groups with the hope toppling the regime militarily. With regards to arming internal groups, the Syrian regime has made that a non-starter by making sure that no territory falls outside its control. Such an area would simply act as a base and an address for foreign arm shipments.

Presumably a no fly-zone would involve NATO targeting and degrading Syria's extensive surface to air anti aircraft missiles. Ehrani notes: "Saddam survived everything that was thrown at him, including a No-Fly zone, for years till the foreign boots showed up. Once the latter happened, his regime simply crumbled in days. While the initial western success was intoxicating, what came after was enough to convince even the most hawkish elements in Washington that a repeat of that experiment in Syria now would be incomprehensible. The country does not have the financial, political or military stomach for this adventure at the moment.

"The newly formed Syrian National Council faces a dilemma when it comes to foreign intervention. Quite simply, the opposition knows that it is nearly impossible to topple this regime without foreign help. Yet, they also know that inviting foreign military intervention into Syria is political suicide. What you get as a result is a muddled policy response and half-pregnant answers."

Full link: http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=12447

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